Earthquakes caused by dams.
A study of displacements during
© 2016 Ramaswami Ashok Kumar
19 October 2016
A study of displacements during 12
significant earthquakes of the world caused by combined action of all surface water
bodies on land (Ref 1) shows that the rupture duration of the earthquakes (Ref
2) is determined by the sum of the dam content changes occurring in all the
reservoirs: Figure 2Ch2 (Data from Table 1):
The dam content change occurring in
the dry season, October to June is taken as negative while that in the monsoon
is taken as positive.
1. The rupture duration of the
earthquake in seconds(s) correlates linearly
with the absolute value of the dam content change denoted by ABSdbcm,
measured in billion cubic meters(BCM) and is very significant: CORREL(ABSdbcm, s):
R^2 is 0.6248.
2. A non-linear correlation of the
rupture duration, s with the absolute value of the dam content change which is
shown also in Figure 2Ch2 is a cubic fit with R^2 = 0.8176 or r= 0.904. The
cubic fit is
y = -2E-09x3 + 2E-05x2 +
0.0453x + 39.347
R² = 0.8176
Less than 20% of the variations are
not explained by this fit.
3. Note also that the linear
correlation between the energy released at the hypocentre of the quake, Es in Joules
and the ABS(dam content Change),BCM is
R Df T P
4. And that the linear correlation
between the Power in Terawatts of the energy release at the quake is
R Df T P
5. And the probability of all these
occurring simultaneously due to chance is equal to product of three probabilities at 1, 3 and 4
and is 2.75975E-12.
For the values of dam content change due to
energy release Es in Joules at the quake hypocentre, the energy released Es,
the rupture duration in seconds, s , the power of the energy release at the
hypocentre. Terawatts, and other derived values, see rows 44 to 60 in Table 1. Data
for Latur Earthquake is from Ref 3.
1. predicting earthquakes: The science of dams
causing earthquakes and climate change at
2. USGS: Significant Earthquakes of the World at
3.PROCEEDINGS OF SMiRT-13-POST CONFERENCE SEMINAR-16
SEISMIC EVALUATION OF EXISTING NUCLEAR FACILITIES
LATUR EARTHQUAKE AND ITS IMPACT ON THE ASEISMIC DESIGN
OF STRUCTURES IN INDIA
Atomic Energy Regulatory Board, INDIA