### DAM SURGES DETERMINE RUPTURE DURATIONS

**Earthquakes caused by dams.**

**A study of displacements during significant earthquakes.**

**© 2016 Ramaswami Ashok Kumar**

**19 October 2016**

**A study of displacements during 12 significant earthquakes of the world caused by combined action of all surface water bodies on land (Ref 1) shows that the rupture duration of the earthquakes (Ref 2) is determined by the sum of the dam content changes occurring in all the reservoirs: Figure 2Ch2 (Data from Table 1):**

**The dam content change occurring in the dry season, October to June is taken as negative while that in the monsoon is taken as positive.**

**1. The rupture duration of the earthquake in seconds(s) correlates linearly with the absolute value of the dam content change denoted by ABSdbcm, measured in billion cubic meters(BCM) and is very significant: CORREL(ABSdbcm, s):**

R 0.790456 |
Df 10 |
T 4.080921 |
P 0.002211109 |

**
**

**R^2 is 0.6248.**

**2. A non-linear correlation of the rupture duration, s with the absolute value of the dam content change which is shown also in Figure 2Ch2 is a cubic fit with R^2 = 0.8176 or r= 0.904. The cubic fit is**

**y = -2E-09x**

R² = 0.8176

^{3}+ 2E-05x^{2}+ 0.0453x + 39.347R² = 0.8176

**Less than 20% of the variations are not explained by this fit.**

**3. Note also that the linear correlation between the energy released at the hypocentre of the quake, Es in Joules and the ABS(dam content Change),BCM is**

**R Df T P**

0.9392 |
10 |
8.649598 |
5.9052E-06 |

**4. And that the linear correlation between the Power in Terawatts of the energy release at the quake is**

**R Df T P**

0.872757 |
10 |
5.653733 |
0.000211361 |

**5. And the probability of all these occurring simultaneously due to chance is equal to product of three probabilities at 1, 3 and 4 and is**

**2.75975E-12.**

**For the values of dam content change due to energy release Es in Joules at the quake hypocentre, the energy released Es, the rupture duration in seconds, s , the power of the energy release at the hypocentre. Terawatts, and other derived values, see rows 44 to 60 in Table 1. Data for Latur Earthquake is from Ref 3.**

**References:**

**1. predicting earthquakes: The science of dams causing earthquakes and climate change a****t**

**
**

**2.**

**USGS: Significant Earthquakes of the World at**

**3.PROCEEDINGS OF SMiRT-13-POST CONFERENCE SEMINAR-16**

**SEISMIC EVALUATION OF EXISTING NUCLEAR FACILITIES**

**LATUR EARTHQUAKE AND ITS IMPACT ON THE ASEISMIC DESIGN**

**OF STRUCTURES IN INDIA**

**P.C. BASU**

**Atomic Energy Regulatory Board, INDIA**

**XA9952647**

**www.iaea.org/inis/collection/NCLCollectionStore/_Public/30/053/30053310.pdf**